![]() Another Super Bowl ring should push Wilson over the top. Wilson isn't quite a lock, but he has made nine Pro Bowls and every other quarterback with that number has been enshrined. In terms of the current AFC West, Mahomes could retire tomorrow and make it to the Hall of Fame. Let's start with the qualitative argument: Has there ever been a division more likely to reunite in Canton one day? We'll keep that 113 number in mind as we look at other divisions. The average mark for these four would be an ANY/A+ of 113. Herbert, in part because of his inexperience, comes in at 109. Wilson and Carr are tied behind him at 111. ![]() Mahomes unsurprisingly tops the group at 121. Using a simple projection model, we'd expect the AFC West passers to all post positive ANY/A+ marks in 2022. Josh Rosen posted a 66 ANY/A+ that season, his rookie year with Arizona. Mahomes posted a 136 ANY/A+ during his breakout season in 2018. Zach Wilson's 69 ANY/A+ was the worst among regular starters. For reference, in 2021, Aaron Rodgers led the league with a 123 ANY/A+. A 100 ANY/A+ is average, regardless of season. I went with the Pro Football Reference stat era-adjusted net yards per attempt ( ANY/A+), which takes a better version of passer rating, adjusts it for the level of play in each given season and then puts it on a normalized scale. Passer rating might be fine in terms of comparing quarterbacks historically within a given season, but using any unadjusted stat to compare quarterbacks across eras is hopeless, given how the baselines for quarterback play have changed over the past 50 years. I also had to pick a stat to analyze those quarterbacks. I've tried to be more generous toward divisions that had four great quarterbacks and a fifth who struggled to keep up the pace. It's easier to find four great quarterbacks than five, which is going to weight our analysis toward smaller divisions. In addition, we have to contend with the reality that the league used five-team divisions for stretches of the past 50 years. I eliminated the passers who didn't throw at least 200 passes and who weren't their team's primary starter. I ran through every team and every division going back through the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 and charted how each division's quarterbacks performed, both in terms of how they did that season and what their careers looked like in hindsight. To see where they stand, we have to evaluate the past. After the Wilson trade, though, I started wondering: Does it project to be the best quarterback division ever? Most people would agree that the AFC West is the best division of quarterbacks, one through four. The Raiders' Derek Carr has a virtually identical passer rating over the past four seasons (97.3) to Tom Brady (97.7) and leads the league in fourth-quarter game-winning drives over that span. The Chargers' Justin Herbert just finished a 5,014-yard season and is off to one of the best starts we've ever seen from a young quarterback. The division can boast one Hall of Famer entering the prime of his career in Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes, whose résumé requires no introduction. When you consider Denver had been rolling with Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynchand Drew Lock, Wilson might be the biggest upgrade any team made at a key position this offseason. ![]() The biggest prize in the division's offseason spending spree was Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson, who is expected to fill the post- Peyton Manning hole the team has desperately been trying to take care of for the past half-decade. ![]() In case you haven't noticed, the AFC West is stacked. ![]()
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